The Other Side of Coronavirus
There are several words that define the pandemic pause we are all experiencing: fear, uncertainty, boredom, stress, anxiety, and – thank goodness – humor. This has been like an episode from a science fiction novel or The Twilight Zone for those of us who remember Rod Serling’s surreal TV series of the ‘60s. Seldom have we experienced a phenomenon that affects everyone, even if in varying degrees depending on location, age, social or economic circumstances.
What is not clear is the aftermath of this calamity. Will we return to life as we knew it, or will there be lasting effects? Will there be a kind of re-set that changes the way we think, behave, live and work, perhaps for the better?
We cannot really know that, but in times like this, we discover what we are capable of, not just in terms of stamina and the generosity of the human spirit, but also in our versatility and collaboration to work the problem.
Witness competitors in the 3-D printing industry holding joint webinars to learn how to re-tool their printers to make ventilators and masks. Hotels making beds available for less-at-risk coronavirus quarantine patients to lessen hospital overcrowding. Manufacturing plants searching warehouses for industrial masks and delivering them directly to hospital doorsteps. Not government-mandated initiatives, but private enterprise doing what it does best…being enterprising.
Witness the Arkansas commercial property owner who told his tenants, “Don’t pay me your rent; use that money to pay your people.” Las Vegas’ Wynn Hotel continuing to pay its full-time and part-time workers despite closing the hotel, and forgiving huge canceled reservation penalties for a long-time, loyal meeting client. The health care workers not only putting themselves at risk but finding places to sleep so as not to go home and potentially infect their families. The Navy moving the USNS Comfort hospital ship from Norfolk to New York in days rather than weeks to help suffering New Yorkers. There are so many inspiring stories.
Unfortunately, there are others as well. Vitriolic social media posts that use this disaster to point fingers, too often based on incorrect information or misrepresented sound-bites. Politicians more focused on pork than people. Opportunists taking advantage of scarce resources to make a profit. Self-centered individuals more concerned about disrupting their routines or vacations than the price paid for refusing to social distance.
As we watch all of this unfold, what will the world look like late this year or next? Will the changes be routine, like adopting regular hand-washing habits, or will they be life-changing?
In real estate, will we finally blast past roadblocks to innovations like automated appraisals and electronic closings to create more convenient, seamless, timely transactions?
Will the trend toward multi-family housing and denser city living be altered in favor of less congested areas, perhaps giving new life to troubled suburbs?
Will people prefer to invest in a second home they control rather than taking a chance on vacation rentals and house-sharing?
Following enforced isolation from family and friends, will meaningful socialization increase, or will Zoom continue to zoom?
Will integrity in business and government be rewarded, with a new appreciation for leaders who acted and contributed rather than those who sat by and criticized?
Will office employees insist on being able to continue working from home? Or will they appreciate the advantages of in-person collaboration?
Which disruptors in our business who have enjoyed the competitive advantage of sustained unprofitability will survive the current leveling of the playing field? How will they be perceived when they were willing to invest money to put a competitor out of business but not to keep employees on the payroll just a few weeks into the pandemic? As managers and support staff are cut, will some agents second-guess their decisions to abandon brokers who have been there for them in favor of a short-term payday?
In real estate, as was pointed out in a well-done Zelman & Associates webinar on how COVD-19 will affect housing, there is some cause for optimism, even though we’re in for a rough year and much depends on the duration of the shut-down.
We’ve gone into this downturn with the strong benefit of positive demand based on demographics, price appreciation protection due to tight inventory, and highly favorable interest rates.
Mortgage guidelines and our last housing recession experience have protected underwriting and limited risk tolerance to ensure healthier financial conditions.
Everyone can see this downturn coming and can plan accordingly, unlike other recessions.
We don’t know how this will all play out, but we have seen massive changes in our competitive landscape in the last two years, as is stunningly apparent in the latest Real Trends 500 brokerage ranking just released. Will the models and capital of these new leaders withstand a challenging market? Will they continue to top the list next year? Those that have truly brought meaningful innovation to the table – like Redfin – no doubt will. Others? Perhaps not.
As we contemplate the present and future impact of coronavirus, I was reminded of another “CV” - curriculum vitae, the Latin term meaning “course of life.” How will the new CV we are currently experiencing impact the course of our lives going forward? Time will tell, but I’d like to think it could be a positive course correction.